Happy Groundhog Day
Some Thoughts on Forecasts and Shadows
Posted: February 02, 2017 at 12:00 AM by John Smith
This is a very special day ... at least for groundhogs, Pennsylvanians, and Bill Murray fans ...
Today, somewhere in the Eastern United States, a rodent has already provided his unique prognostication on our coming weather. Not quite as folksy as The Farmer's Almanac or as high-tech as our television weathermen, this quaint American custom prevails, regardless of accuracy.
As some of you hum the Pennsylvania Polka to set the mood and enjoy the hoopla, let me share a few observations about forecasting:
Forecasting Is An Art, Not A Science ...
We have access to some sophisticated electronic equipment, the latest in display technology, and learned souls to help us make sense of it all ... and we still get it wrong.
Weather is much like people ... a measure of unreliability and random change makes forecasting anything impossible to do accurately or consistently, and the farther ahead you look, the less accurate and consistent the forecasts.
Knowing What Will Happen Is Only Half the Deal ...
Having the information you need is not enough in and of itself. You still need to act and react accordingly to take advantage of what you know.
If having the information were enough, nobody would smoke cigarettes, we'd probably stick to Mediterranean diets, and everyone would exercise regularly.
Weather Changes, So Stay Flexible ...
Few things in life remain the same and weather is no exception. Sometimes, you need to have an umbrella, even if the forecast is for sunny skies.
Being prepared is one thing. Being prepared to shift as needed and adapt to new or changing situations is much more valuable.
Bottom Line ... You did not really think this was about the weather or the groundhog, did you?
As you prepare to sell or buy a home, keep these observations in mind. A good agent educates you, takes advantage of current tools and technology, and makes sure you are ready for what the experts say is coming.
A great agent goes a step beyond and prepares you to be flexible, adaptable, ... and not to be too afraid of seeing your own shadow:)
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